7 months ago
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TOKYO (AP) — The governing party of outgoing Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida holds a key vote Friday that will establish a new national leader.
The vote is limited to the long-ruling Liberal Democratic Party's parliamentarians and dues-paying members. Because the party's governing coalition dominates parliament, the winner is assured to be Japan’s next prime minister.
A record nine lawmakers, including two women, are vying for the job in an unpredictable race.
The winner must quickly regain public trust, or Japan could face a return to a damaging cycle of short-lived governments, experts say.
How does the election work?
The vote is limited to LDP lawmakers and 1.1 million grassroots members. That's less than 1% of the country’s eligible voters.
No candidate is expected to win a majority in the first round of voting because of split votes, so the winner will probably be determined in a runoff between the top two vote-getters.
LDP leadership votes used to be determined by the party’s powerful faction leaders, but experts say that may change this time because all but one of the six factions has announced their dissolution following the party’s corruption scandals.
The vote is crucial for the LDP, which is looking for a leader who can revive public support for the party after scandals that hurt Kishida's popularity.
What does the vote mean for Japan?
Experts say this election could mark a return to an era similar to the early 2000s, when “revolving door” leadership changes and political instability ended only with former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe' s eight-year reign.
This is because the new leader will lack stable backing by powerful factions.
Kishida's three-year leadership stint followed Yoshihide Suga, who had one year in power before he was forced to resign over his unpopular handling of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Frequent government changes make it difficult for Japanese leaders to tackle long-term policy goals or develop trusted relations with other leaders. Japan’s diplomatic and security policies, though, will continue to be based on its key alliance with the United States.
With less influence from factions, the prime minister can exercise more power, but stability depends on support ratings, said Yu Uchiyama, University of Tokyo politics professor. The question is whether the next prime minister can decisively carry out political reform. A new leader will also have to deal with soaring military, child care and climate change costs, he said.
The most damaging scandal centers on the failure of dozens of the party’s most influential members to report political donations. That led to the indictment of several lawmakers, their aides and accountants. Kishida’s party has tightened political funds laws and conducted an internal investigation, but critics say the measures weren't enough.
