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We recently compiled a list of the 8 Best Wide Moat Stocks to Buy According to Analysts. In this article, we are going to take a look at where Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ:MSFT) stands against the other wide moat stocks.
Undoubtedly, global and domestic investors have mastered the art of riding out the highs and lows of the US stock market. They tend to believe that fluctuations in the stock market are short-term, and should be dealt with accordingly.
McKinsey & Company highlighted that, in 2001, the market cap of the companies making up the S&P 500 stood at ~$10 trillion. As of mid-June 2022 (despite the bearish opening), S&P 500 market capitalization touched ~$32 trillion. Also, the mean total yearly returns (including dividends) of the S&P 500 between 1996 to mid-June 2022 was ~9% in nominal terms, or ~6.8% in real terms.
The investors have seen significant fluctuations. S&P 500 saw a strong decline in 2000, 2001, and 2002, with a ~37% decline in 2008 and a ~22% fall in 1H 2022. That being said, between 1996 and mid-June 2022, S&P 500 returns only declined 5 times annually. While there can be significant fluctuations in the US markets, the macroeconomic indicators can help provide a broader overview of the expected performance of equities.
US Fed Rate Cut – It Finally Happened
The decision on the rate cut by the US Federal Reserve was indeed a closely watched one. The apex bank decided to go for a larger 50-bps reduction in interest rates, instead of a more traditional 25-bps rate cut. This decision was more consequential than normal for 2 reasons. Firstly, this rate cut marked the initiation of a long-awaited easing cycle. Therefore, the US Federal Reserve shifted its focus away from the risks related to inflation and towards protecting the labor market and economic expansion.
Secondly, the rate cut decision itself was much more critical and engaging than normal. History suggests that the US Fed provides greater transparency when it comes to decision-making. This means the financial markets are not surprised by the decision as people know what the US Fed is going to do. However, the recent one was not like this, with markets pricing the 25-bps rate cut decision. The move to cut the key rates by 50 basis points should help the US Fed normalize rates more quickly and be ahead of the emergent slowness in the broader labor market. That being said, the US Fed's forecasts (the dots) don't reflect this pace continuing beyond September.
The recent report by Russell Investments highlighted that the company expects the US Fed to cut rates by 25 basis points at each of the remaining meetings in 2024. Furthermore, this pace should be sustained into 2025. If the trajectory continues, the US Fed will be down to the company’s expectations of the normal or equilibrium rate of interest of between 3%-3.25% by this time of the next year.