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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine still hasn't become a named storm as of early Tuesday morning but prepare now for a major hurricane to make landfall in Florida later this week.
As the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico, it's expected to quickly intensify. Forecasters are predicting it could be a Category 3 hurricane with 115-mph winds before it makes landfall in Florida Thursday. AccuWeather is predicting it's possible the storm could reach Category 4 strength in the Gulf.
➤ Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
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Experts are urging residents to prepare for this large storm, which could bring several life-threatening impacts not only to Florida but hundreds of miles away from where it makes landfall. Dangerous storm surge, flooding rainfall, destructive winds and a threat for tornadoes are all possible.
Landfall currently is predicted to take place along Florida's Panhandle but don't focus on that. That center can shift rapidly as the storm moves into the Gulf of Mexico and strengthens.
The next named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is Helene.
Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone 9
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
➤ Spaghetti models for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
Radar images of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
Potential Tropical Cyclone 9: What you need to know
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092024_5day_expCone+png/094028_5day_expCone.png
When could Tallahassee, Florida, feel impacts from tropical system?
"Confidence is increasing for significant impacts across the region including major hurricane-force winds, life threatening storm surge, flash flooding from heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes," the National Weather Service Tallahassee said.
"Scattered showers and storms associated with the very outer periphery of PTC9 likely won`t arrive until late Wednesday into Thursday morning.
"By Thursday morning, conditions could begin to deteriorate as the outer portions of PTC9 arrive, but it`s at this point where uncertainty in the forecast begins to vary in timing, intensity, and track."
Could impacts from tropical storm or hurricane be felt in Southwest Florida?
"The current track forecast has the storm moving almost parallel to the Florida Peninsula coast on Thursday, which will make predicting the eventual area of landfall difficult. If the storm moves along the center or western side of the current cone of uncertainty, a landfall in the Panhandle or Big Bend of Florida is likely.
"However, if the center tends towards the east side of the cone, then a landfall along the west coast of the Florida Peninsula becomes more likely," said the National Hurricane Center Tampa Bay. "Significant impacts will occur away from the center and fall outside of the cone."
"Regardless of the exact track, tropical impacts will begin to unfold across the area Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture will increase from the south tonight through Thursday leading to numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday as well as increasing cloud cover, then the highest rain totals are expected on Thursday.
"Tropical storm conditions are possible Wednesday night through Thursday night, as well as hurricane conditions along much of the coastal areas on Thursday.
"Apart from the winds and rain, this track forecast also has the potential to result in significant storm surge for areas east and south of where the center makes landfall as onshore winds pile water onto the coast. The rain also cannot be ignored, with areas along the coast forecast to receive 4-6 inches through Saturday, with locally isolated totals of up to around 10 inches."
Weather radar for Tallahassee, Florida
Weather radar for Florida West Coast, Tampa
NWS radar Loop from Tampa Bay Area, FL
What impacts are possible in Florida from Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 this week?
Wind. AccuWeather is predicting Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 could become a Category 3 hurricane before landfall , and has the potential of strengthening into a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of at least 130 mph. Wind gusts frequenting 100-140 mph are forecast near where the storm lands, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax wind gust of 160 mph.
Rain. "Near where the hurricane makes landfall, general rainfall of 8-12 inches is forecast, with an AccuWeather Local StormMax rainfall of 24 inches."
Storm surge. "A storm surge of 10-15 feet is anticipated near and just east of where the eye rolls ashore. At this time, the level of storm surge is most likely in the Big Bend area of Florida," AccuWeather said. "However, a significant storm surge of up to 6 feet will likely occur through the Tampa area and perhaps as far to the west as Pensacola, depending on the hurricane track."
Tornadoes. "On Thursday, there is also the risk of spin-up tornadoes across much of the Florida peninsula and parts of the Panhandle, as well as southern Georgia and southeast Alabama."
Power outages. Widespread power outages are anticipated near north and east of where the eye makes landfall.
Don't delay: Prepare now for Florida hurricane
“Now is the time to start preparing for a hurricane landfall along the Gulf Coast. Don’t wait for this storm to be officially named,” Porter said.
“This has the potential to rapidly intensify into a powerful hurricane. Don’t let your friends and family along the Gulf Coast be caught off guard. Give them a call or send them a text message and let them know to get ready for a hurricane.
"This could be the storm that the 2024 hurricane season is remembered for,” Porter said.
Bottom line: "People along the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend region and much of the eastern Gulf Coast need to complete preparations for hurricane impacts by Wednesday night before hazardous conditions arrive on Thursday," AccuWeather said.
Watches, warnings issued across Florida
It's too early for any watches or warnings associated with the developing system but experts advise residents to watch Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine closely and make preparations now.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declares state of emergency
Gov. Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 of Florida's 67 counties in advance of "Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine," according to an executive order released Monday.
➤ Florida won't escape this one. Prepare for major hurricane.
The state of emergency affects Alachua, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, Columbia, Dixie, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Lee, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Marion, Monroe, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Sumter, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington counties.
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This article originally appeared on Florida Times-Union: Spaghetti models, radar Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Florida impacts
